You published the $26 Billion Opportunity in 2022. The portcos operationalize the thesis. The profitability shift you named in February 2025 is what makes each portco's outcomes evidence the audit-defense surface — at portfolio level, not just portco level.
12 portcos · 1M lives reached · one substrate
The thesis you publish is what your portcos sell. The profitability shift you named is what makes the recursion hold — or break.
- $26B → $132B · by 2027 · youth mental health TAM
- 15× growth · since 2018
- $59M → $871M · VC inflow · 2018–2021
- → "Youth Wellness & Mental Health: A $26 Billion Opportunity" · telosity.co/mkt-guide · Q3 2022
"[Profitability is] top of mind more than ever. Several years ago, it was really about the interest, the idea, the momentum, the growth. Now we're in a market that is really looking at your revenue, your unit cost, net profit, how much you plan to grow."
Fund I closed · 12 portcos · 1M lives reached. AI-mediated touch (Wave · Maslo), text coaching (MindRight), virtual counseling (Daybreak), behavioral management (Manatee), passive monitoring (Ksana), engagement (Breakthru).
Each portco runs a different outcomes regime and a different unit-economics regime — app · SMS · clinical session · family-app · passive sensing · conversational AI. Thesis stays clean. Per-portco cadence drifts unmeasured at fund level.
Series A/B diligence now tests outcomes AND unit economics side-by-side.
- Daybreak Series B · "show unit economics paired with retention curves." → answer must live beyond the IC memo.
- Wave Series A · "show CAC payback against outcome data." → without substrate beneath each claim, the answer lives in IC memos and founder updates.
The thesis is the public layer. The portco evidence regimes are the recursive layer. The substrate is the same primitive at both levels.
You back Wave for mental-health touch, MindRight for text coaching, Daybreak for virtual counseling. Each ships outcomes paired with unit economics. The discipline they sell follow-on investors is the discipline your fund needs in Series A/B diligence. One framework. Two layers.
- AUDIT CHAIN
- every outcome reading and every unit-economics reading per portco hash-chained, append-only, never-deletable, evidence mode tagged at emission [verified] [model-derived] [self-reported] [partner-supplied] [stale]. Held side-by-side — the surface follow-on diligence inspects.
- METHODOLOGY OVERLAY · L2 YAML
- each portco's outcomes Rₓ and unit-economics readings encoded as inspectable YAML. The thesis you publish becomes the same artifact the fund operates on internally — versioned, portable, replay-tested.
FIG. ── THESIS LAYER · PORTCO LAYER · ONE PRIMITIVE
FIG. ── AUDIT CHAIN · OUTCOMES + UNIT-ECONOMICS · HASH-LINKED · APPEND-ONLY · NEVER-DELETABLE
built for Series A/B replay · before the profitability shift closes
Pick one portco. We rebuild its outcomes + unit-economics chain in synthetic. You see whether it survives Series A/B replay or doesn't.
Phase 0 is not a pilot. Two-week structural diagnostic against one portco of your choice — synthetic data only, no production access. The question it answers is narrow and load-bearing: under follow-on diligence and the profitability shift you named, does this portco's outcomes + unit-economics reading hold across two methodology versions — and does the portfolio-level thesis hold beneath it? Three artifacts come out the other side. You keep all three whether you continue or not.
ONE PORTCO · TWO METHODOLOGY VERSIONS · SYNTHETIC EVIDENCE · OUTCOMES + UNIT-ECONOMICS REPLAY
THE DIAGNOSTIC · WHAT TWO WEEKS PRODUCES
- 01Methodology overlay v0.1
The portco's outcomes Rₓ and unit-economics readings encoded as L2 YAML — evidence regime made inspectable. Versioned. Portable. Runs in your environment without us.
- 02Audit chain replay
The chain populated against synthetic readings across two methodology versions — outcomes + unit economics replay simulated before Series A/B diligence cites it. Drift visible or not.
- 03Cost model
Framed against Series A/B follow-on diligence, secondary-market exit windows, and the audit defense your Feb 2025 quote points toward. Risks named. What Phase 1 costs. Where this approach breaks.
Pressure-test the substrate. Ask where it breaks.
The substrate answers in its own voice — the same primitive we'd install on one of your portcos. Not a demo. The actual reasoning surface.
STREAMING · κ ≥ 0.85 · ANONYMITY HOLDS · CITATIONS BY DEFAULT
If the pattern reads true, the next step is to test whether one portco is the right Phase 0 target.
If relevant, we can send a short async questionnaire — no call needed — and build a no-charge synthetic-data Phase 0 PoC "Telosity AI OS". Within two weeks, replay one portco's outcomes + unit-economics chain against Series A/B diligence before the profitability shift closes.
Healthtech specialist · pre-clinical evidence asymmetry · dual-pathway diligence as substrate.
Healthtech first-time fund · evidence-mode discipline encoded before first close.
Youth mental health · evidence-mode tagging across pre-clinical signal and lived experience.